It's the question everyone's asking: will it be a white Christmas this year? The Met Office has shared its early predictions, but the answer remains uncertain.
While many dream of waking up to snow-covered streets and roofs on Christmas morning, meteorologists say it's too early to know for sure. The Met Office explains that accurate predictions can only be made in the week leading up to December 25th.
What counts as a white Christmas?
© PexelsA white Christmas in the UK doesn't require a thick blanket of snow. According to the Met Office, just one snowflake falling anywhere in the UK on Christmas Day counts.
By that definition, 2023 was a white Christmas, with 11% of weather stations recording snowfall. However, none of it settled on the ground, so it really shouldn't count.
The rarity of snow on Christmas Day in the UK
© PexelsSnowfall on Christmas is more common than you might think, with around half of the years since 1960 seeing at least 5% of stations report snow. But snow that sticks is much rarer.
Widespread snow cover—where 40% of stations report snow settling—has only happened four times since 1960. The last was in 2010, a record-breaking year with snow on the ground at 83% of stations.
Why is it so hard to predict?
© George WoodMet Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explained the difficulty of forecasting snow so far in advance: "Computer models are run lots of times to find common weather patterns and less-likely ones."
A small change in temperature can make the difference between snow, sleet, or rain. This makes precise predictions particularly tricky for a day as specific as Christmas.
What's the forecast for this year?
© GettyThe Met Office's current long-range forecast for the week of Christmas suggests spells of wind and rain. Snow is only likely on higher ground in the north.
But don't lose hope yet. As the day gets closer, predictions will become more accurate. Keep an eye on updates from the Met Office in the days leading up to Christmas.
The magic of a white Christmas
© PexelsA white Christmas may be rare, but the possibility adds to the festive excitement. Even the smallest flurry of snow brings joy to those celebrating the holiday.
While it's impossible to guarantee snow this year, there's always a chance. The Met Office says: "Watch this space."
As we count down to Christmas, many will be keeping their fingers crossed for snow. Whether it's a single flake or a full winter wonderland, the dream of a white Christmas keeps the festive spirit alive.
